Lonesome Tree in Sandhills

Friday, December 26, 2008

The Blinking Red Light

American leaders ignored the blinking red light at OUR economic peril.

In the past decade, the Chinese loaned trillions of excess savings to the US at very low interest rates.  China invested earnings mostly from manufacturing exports by buying U.S. T-Bills, bonds and government-backed mortgage debt.  The more they bought, the lower the interest rates. Lowered interest rates helped fuel a historic consumption binge and housing bubble in the United States.

US leaders became complacent about borrowing from a communist country & American consumers were lulled into complacency about spending beyond their means.  Economists say Americans should have recognized borrowing from abroad for consumption and deficit spending at home was not a formula for economic success.  Its not rocket science!  WHAT WERE WE THINKING??

China accumulated trillions of US debt instruments (2/3rds of US national debt) & the US taxpayers in turn pay billions of dollars in interest, with which China competes for oil supplies against the US.  If China had allowed its currency to float according to market demand in the past decade, its export growth probably would have moderated & it would not have acquired the same vast hoard of dollars to invest abroad.

"This was a blinking red light," said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. "We should have reacted to it."

But the Fed & Alan Greenspan didn't react.  Interest rates stayed low, contributing to the US housing bubble even as China stoked our easy-money economy to export more goods. These so-called economic experts looked right at that blinking red light like a deer in headlights & stoked speculation in real estate.  Perhaps Alan fell asleep at the wheel, but were the Fed's other members asleep, or mesmerized by the blinking red light?

Thursday, December 18, 2008

Opposite Economic Views

~ Informed investors make stronger markets. ~

The old adages, "Everything is timing" & "90% of what happens is due to attitude" is very pertinent to smart investing. Economic pendulums swing back from going too far in either direction - its just a matter of attitudes gathering speed. Much depends on consumers.

Bear market money-makers see global economies continuing to contract well into late 2010. They expect consumers outstripped their ability to pay huge levels of debt after a decade of decadent spending like there's no tomorrow. They expect most will spend only on necessities to pay off credit card debt & car loans, but those w/low-paying or no jobs will default. They believe this process will stretch out over several years - slowing annual growth to 1.0% (down from 3.5%), and that stock prices have not yet fully priced in this timing.

Speakers' motives at the Reuters Investment Summit play a huge role. They all try to influence their particular markets up or down depending on their strategy to make money. Never mind there are few alternatives for that big load of money flowing out of hedge funds.

Bears like Atteberry, who runs a $2 billion bond fund at First Pacific Advisors in LA focused on income funds, hopes to gain more institutional & high-value clients disenchanted with hedge funds & seeking safe harbors. Taylor, an old guy who trades currencies with a $14 billion hedge fund, hopes global traders will dump currencies so he can buy cheaper.

Bullish speakers like O'Shaunessy are also trying to influence managers of institutional & high-value clients to release their big load of money to buy equities now, which would drive those market up. Even if growth in spending slows to a crawl, they believe it will pick back up so best to get into equities of companies with solid fundamentals while their stock is undervalued. How severely undervalued is the question here.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Gift Card Caution

Gift Card Caution:  Buyer Beware

Consider giving cash or gift cards issued by your bank this Holiday Season - rather than merchant-branded gift cards - to avoid redemption problems should a merchant close its business.

The FDIC approved insuring "stored value cards" IF the cards are purchased from banks.  The FDIC will recognize card holders as insured "depositors" if the issuing bank fails. FDIC insurance does not cover merchant-brand cards.

With several large bankruptcies came large shocks to consumers holding gift cards in those companies.  SharperImage had close to $20 million in outstanding gift cards when it filed. The Bankruptcy Court ruled gift cards are booked as debt owed card holders as unsecured creditors and discharged the debt. Circuit City filed and asked the Bankruptcy Court to allow the company to redeem the cards at stores that will remain open during its reorganization.  States Attorney Generals are moving to protect consumers by getting state legislatures to pass laws extending time limits for redemption; e.g., Illinois law allows up to 5 years.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

ELEGANCE vs. HATE

Can Elegance Trump Hate?


Georgia's 10th District Rep. Paul Braun used HATE with fear-mongering code words to belittle our 44th President at a Rotary meeting. How his hateful words made national news to be repeated on talk radio is another story. Braun's ploy to use national media to drive voters back to the polls for Saxby Chambliss in a run-off worked stunningly well.

Contrast that with ELEGANT words about what it means to be American in a published essay by Waverli Rainey, a teenager in Wasilla, Alaska. Waverli (who is white) was deeply disturbed by disrespect shown a new president on election night at Wasilla's Sports Complex & by open hate-filled bigotry at school the next day. Waverli decries her own lack of courage to speak out, but with courage & essay in hand, went to the local paper.

The Frontiersman published Waverli's essay on Nov. 13. Certain blogs took note, but not the national news media. Why is that?

Waverli turned aside hate, not by a rant like Rep. Braun, but with ELEGANT writing... as did our Founding Fathers. Her most powerful writing is her description of what being an American means - feelings shared by millions of silent Americans who spoke with their votes.  [Note:  Please read this letter from Waverli's mother before reading the article.]

Valley teen has some big questions
By Waverli Rainey
Frontiersman Spectrum | Nov. 13, 2008

Hats off to Waverli Rainey & other young people who want a better America where hate words have no power at all. They are the future of our nation.

The question is - will national news give Waverli's elegant words as much attention as Dr. Broun's hateful fear-mongering words?

Freedom of the press carries within certain responsibilities & tremendous power. We the people must insist our national press give more power to words of ELEGANCE than words of HATE - if WE want a better nation.

Kudos also to other young people who walk the talk. They put their own lives on hold, drove long distances to Georgia, & are working long 12 hr. days - just to get out the vote for Democrat Jim Martin, who's challenging the incumbent Senator in a run-off. Same young people worked tirelessly for another challenger who walks the talk - Barrack Obama.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Palin's True Mission

We dodged a Palin bullet this time, but just barely & we better be watchful or it will hit us in the backside next time. This Palin connection sure didn't get media attention like Rev. Wright did before the election. Why not?

Sarah Palin’s heavy involvement with C. Peter Wagner’s Apostolic Council of Prophetic Elders should give us all heartburn! Wagner's New Apostolic Reformation's "The Seven Mountains Mandate" is intended to equip HIS "Christians" (exclusive) to begin taking control of education, business, banking, government plus 3 others.

Talk2Action called the lack of coverage scandalous!

~ An informed electorate is necessary for a strong nation. ~

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Election Reaction

Election Reaction - Notice it is SO quiet!

Results were so astounding - people are still digesting their own emotional reaction.

I watched the returns come in with my daughter & her husband. She & I cheered loudly when Iowa results came in (we’re proud to be from Iowa, where Obama’s campaign was launched). Soon the Electoral Vote count shot up with west coast results in & we all jumped up cheering roundly, including the dog. Fireworks went off nearby in their neighborhood.

We marveled at McCain’s concession speech in Phoenix. We all thought the old McCain is back! He was gracious & respectful - as if he was speaking code to old friends that the REAL John McCain was still there. Good for him!

Soon after the singer finished at Grant Park in Chicago, Barack Obama walked out with his family to a HUGE uproar. After hugging his wife & kids, he stepped to the podium - looking punch-drunk exhausted - & launched one of his finest speeches, firing up that crowd of supporters in Grant Park even more! Not long after more fireworks go off nearby.

Loved the families up on stage at Grant Park!! Pictures like that are worth 1,000,000 words when the world is looking on. Their mothers! Well, what can I say?

Listening to NPR analyse the results the next morning, I realized Obama had been given a mandate. I found myself quietly crying, my heart swelled knowing there were more than 60 million Americans who also want our beloved country to once again be respected & loved by the rest of the world.

The pride I feel is not related to electing a man of bi-racial heritage. It is directly connected to Obama's stand against invading Iraq when it was risky for him to do so as a candidate for the Illinois Senate. He called it dumb then & he was right!

Obama didn’t know then just how many good old-fashioned Americans agreed!!

~ An informed electorate is necessary for a strong nation. ~

Thursday, October 23, 2008

BAILOUT: Using New Math

BAILOUT: Using New Math

More like using Old Kentucky Math

ENJOY!

~ An informed electorate is necessary for a strong nation. ~

Monday, October 20, 2008

Nationalizing US Banks

"Cash is King!" - The Rich Get Richer...
That old adage has never been truer than now. Fearful hysteria overrode fundamentals this past 2-3 months - especially last 2 weeks - driving prices to the bargain basement. Governments world-wide pledged $3.3 TRILLION to remedy the worst financial crisis in decades.

Making History: If you blinked twice last week, you likely missed this history in the making. 9 largest US banks were NATIONALIZED on Oct. 14 when Henry Paulsen, US Treasurer, did a fast U-turn & handed their CEO's a 1-page agreement that required each bank to sell the US government preferred stock plus warrants to buy common for a $25 billion capital infusion whether they needed it or not. Objecting & grumbling, the CEO's did as they were told after Paulsen gave them an ultimatum: take the deal or we'll raise the ante on your banks (translation: raise capital requirements).

The Treasury - on behalf of taxpaying citizens - received preferred shares paying 5% dividends (increasing to 9% w/in 5 yr.); plus warrants to buy common equal to 15% of the initial investment, which would not be voting shares. The rising dividends & warrants are intended to give banks an incentive to buy back the shares. Supposedly, Paulsen basically demanded from the banks what Warren Buffett demanded from Goldman Sachs - only the banks got a slightly better deal.

Henry Paulsen took a page out of Warren Buffett's "HARD BARGAIN" play book... or maybe it was bridge - Warren's favorit game. (Heh! Heh!)

Pay attention now & don't blink when I tell you Warren Buffett is Obama's chief economic advisor & will likely be sitting at his Cabinet table should Obama win this election. Make you feel better about SOCIALISTIC moves the Bush Administration put on those US banks? Good ~ now that you KNOW the sky isn't falling, can we get on with figuring out whether our pensions & 401k's will head back into better territory??

Now global credit is starting to kick in and, while volatile, stocks & bonds should solidify the bottom of the markets this coming week. If you've been sitting on cash, now is the time to start buying back in - but on a $-cost weekly basis until Thanksgiving. Don't overlook investment-grade bonds (w/i-rate spreads are at historical highs) - of companies that are sitting on $640 billion of cash. Stocks will rise along w/these corp bonds. We'll be seeing a wobbly u-turn in the markets to match 1988, but 5 years from now you'll be glad you were in the market!

World stocks are bouncing up as confidence in credit begins to grow.  This Monday morning S&P 500 futures rose 17.10 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures climbed 147 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 22 points.  Also short-term lending rates are beginning to narrow. Indications that markets are getting back to normal.

Warren Buffett gave his thumbs up on Friday in a NY Times Op-Ed. Stating with his usual Midwestern wisdom ("So, if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.")& utmost confidence, Warren said he's moving from 100% US government bonds to 100% American stocks in his personal account:
"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."
Today the world's biggest investors - managers of the largest asset management companies sitting on cash - followed Buffett & gave their collective thumbs up, too. Cautiously, of course...

Hoo-wee!! Time for a GROUP HUG!! ~ MomsHugs

~ An informed electorate is necessary for a strong nation. ~

Sunday, October 12, 2008

New Bonfire of Vanities

Talk about political red meat for NonsenseNews Chatter! The stock market flame-out has brought out a political blame-game bonfire almost as hot as the stock market crash itself.  Remember the movie, "Bonfire of Vanities"? 

The worst of them blames the bleeding-heart Democrats who helped people buy homes they could ill-afford if times got tough.  Guess its too much trouble to dig into the documentation of those bleeding-heart Republicans who helped people buy risky loans they could ill-afford if times got tough.

Well, its NOT for the faint of heart, unless you have a lot of time & courage to drill down into the evidence - apparently gushing talk-show hosts don't have either time nor courage!!!

Comments on Proposed Rule: Alternative Net Capital Requirements for Broker-Dealers That Are Part of Consolidated Supervised Entities  [Release No. 34-48690; File No. S7-21-03]

This financial house of cards would not have been as likely to collapse had the SEC followed the advice of Leonard Bole, software consultant to the U. of Chicago.  Bole's comments were the sole dissenting opinion in opposition to letting the investment banks use their own computer models to measure variable risk.  [Comments of Leonard D. Bole, L.D.B. Consulting, Inc., January 22, 2004 (File name: s72103-9.pdf)]

Friend of Fox - Cox

Who is Christopher Cox - SEC Chairman & Friend of Fox - you ask?  Read on & wonder how could the stock market have crashed on his watch... within 20 years of the 1987 crash.

Chairman Cox has had an illustrious career... until now.  His 2005 bio indicates he is truly a very smart guy - earned a joint MBA-JD from Harvard (like Obama, he was also an Editor of Harvard Law Review)  He clerked for a federal judge before joining a prestigious international law firm in LA, specializing in venture capital & corporate finance as head of its Orange Co. corporate department. He left to serve Pres. Reagan as Assoc. White House Counsel in 1986 - a year before the stock market crashed big time in 1987.  Reagan assigned Cox as White House liaison to Greenspan's "Brady Commission" charged with investigating the causes of the October 1987 stock market crash.

He returned to California, was elected to Congress, where he served 17 years in the House - 10 of those years with a Republican majority.  As a few excerpts from his bio futher illustrates, Rep. Cox truly looked out for his corporate constituents....

"Among the significant laws he authored were the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which protects investors from fraudulent lawsuits, and the Internet Tax Freedom Act, which protects Internet users from multiple and discriminatory taxation. His legislative efforts to eliminate the double tax on shareholder dividends — the subject of a thesis he authored at Harvard University in 1977 — led to the enactment in May 2003 of legislation that cut the double tax by more than half.

"In addition, he served in a leadership capacity as a senior Member of every committee with jurisdiction over investor protection and U.S. capital markets, including the House Energy and Commerce Committee (as Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee); the Financial Services Committee; the Government Reform Committee (as Vice Chairman of the full Committee); the Joint Economic Committee; and the Budget Committee."

"During his tenure at the SEC, Chairman Cox has made vigorous enforcement of the securities laws the agency's top priority, bringing ground breaking cases against a variety of market abuses including hedge fund insider trading, stock options backdating, fraud aimed at senior citizens, municipal securities fraud, and securities scams on the Internet. He has assumed leadership of the international effort to more closely integrate U.S. and overseas regulation in an era of global capital markets and international securities exchanges."